pp. 17, 53–56 · PDF pp. 17, 53–56
Historical GDP and calendar 2026 forecast
CSO estimates real GDP fell 0.5% in 2025. The Ministry projects a 2.2% decline in 2026, energy output down 6.6% and non-energy output down 0.7%. Q1 2026 real activity fell 1.8% year-on-year. The report explains that the Ministry, rather than the CSO, prepares current-year forecasts.
pp. 19, 106–108 · PDF pp. 19, 106–108
Employment, unemployment and participation
Q4 2025 to Q1 2026: employed persons 569,900 to 564,000; unemployed persons 25,700 to 31,900; unemployment 4.3% to 5.4%; participation 55.1% in both periods. Table 6, p.107, footnote 87: ages 15–24 unemployment 7.7% to 12.6%. The separately defined 15–29 group has rates 8.5% to 10.2%. Female unemployment rises from 4.8% to 6.9%, with 6,800 fewer employed women; male employment rises by 900. Rounded counts may not sum exactly.
p. 56 · PDF p. 56
Retail, vehicle and construction indicators
Q1 2026 retail-sales index declines: construction and hardware 12.9%, motor vehicles and parts 12.8%, petrol filling stations 11.5%. First-half motor vehicle sales fall 14.5% year-on-year and local cement sales 44%; construction employment declines 2.4% year-on-year in Q1. Indicators have distinct coverage and reference periods.
p. 19; fiscal/debt chapters · PDF p. 19
Original forecast, revised balance and debt scope
Initial fiscal 2026 deficit TT$3,864.7M, revised to TT$7,000M; revised revenue TT$54,247.1M and expenditure TT$61,247.1M. Current-account deficit TT$4,704.8M. End-year total general government debt estimate TT$151,773.9M comprises adjusted debt TT$149,546.2M plus TT$2,227.7M sterilised OMO borrowings. Adjusted debt equals an estimated 83.3% of GDP, down from 83.8%, even though the adjusted debt stock increased.
Editorial summaries. Pinpoints use the visible current page numbering of the official PDF; some pages also retain a second, one-page-earlier footer in the layout. Historical CSO estimates and Ministry forecasts are identified separately.